Turn on the news and it is all inflation and cost of living. The pressure is real, for sure. But that coverage tells you what people are worried about, not what they are doing at the counter.
I talk to retailers regularly who say their experience is disconnected from the narrative in news and other outlets.
The data tells a different story. The ABS Monthly Household Spending Indicator for July had discretionary spending up 1.0% for the month. The June quarter national accounts had discretionary spending leading household consumption growth. Our own sales benchmark study shows the same thing at shop level: people are spending up on what they love.
I think Christmas 2026 is sitting right there in those numbers, if you land it properly in your shop.
I think there are two Christmas shoppers to plan for this year.
The gift buyer is value focussed. A list, a budget per person, comparing as they go. Not buying cheap. Buying what feels worth more than they paid. There is a difference.
The self care shopper is another thing entirely. Buying for yourself, a treat, something that makes you feel good. Price pressure eases right off when the gift is for you. I see it in shops with sensory product, collectables and the affirmation ranges. People buy joy for themselves without checking the price twice.
Plenty of shops are set up for one of these and miss the other.
For the gift buyer
Merchandise by price point, not category. Gift answers at $15, $25 and $50 make the decision easy and make value visible.
Bundle. A candle, a card and wrap at one price feels generous. You control value perception, nobody else does it for you.
Put the story on the ticket. Who it suits, what it goes with. A good ticket sells while you are busy at the counter.
For the self indulgence shopper
Give your treat categories prime space. If sensory or collectables sit at the back while papers hold the front, that is this week’s job.
Don’t discount these lines. This shopper is not asking for a deal. Margin lives here.
Reset the counter for impulse. Small, joyful, under $20.
The timing point
Christmas 2026 is being decided now, in September. Orders, layby promotion, floor moves, rosters. Get the Christmas floor right by mid October and you bank the whole season. Leave it until December and you bank half.
The economic news will stay gloomy from here to Christmas. Let it. Your customers are telling you, in the ABS numbers and in your own POS data, what they will spend on. Make what they love easy to find.
That is a profitable Christmas 2026.