Month: June 2005

Fred Hilmer, Fairfax CEO, presented a paper at the 58th World Newspaper Congress on Seoul last week. The full text of the speech is available from the company website here. They have also made available the accompanying PowerPoint presentation.

The paper, Building off the Print Franchise, is an interesting journey into an Australian publisher’s perspective of the changing world of news and information. Since the forum was public the paper is not as broad in some areas as I’d like. However, the discussion of growth in online is interesting as is his discussion of the Fairfax focus on building their community newspaper franchise. A quote I like is “Small may not be as beautiful as it once was, but local still is.”

Hilmer’s paper ought to be read by newsagents and anyone else involved in the news and information supply chain – not out of fear or looking for coded information but to understand that there is a strategy. Hilmer’s opening comments put the strategy in perspective as these selected quotes show:

The technological changes we face, such as the internet, may be new but the challenges they represent are, in a profound sense, quite old. The internet may be the latest but it is by no means the last new entrant in the media space.

My main message is that the challenges we face are real and acute, and demand multiple initiatives and responses.

There is no magic bullet—no one answer that works for all parts of our publishing businesses.

Nor is there room for complacency: The challenges of competition, technology and audience fragmentation are not going away. In fact, they seem to be accelerating.

I’d love to have an opportunity to talk with Hilmer and his strategists to discuss “competition, technology and audience fragmentation” in pursuit of mutually beneficial strategies. Our problems are, in the main, their problems and vice versa. They have resources small business newsagents do not have and there must be a way we can tap in and access these resources in a business like and co-operative way.

Last week I downloaded and watched EPIC 2015, an updated version of the previous EPIC flash movie speculating about the future of media, over the coming decade. I didn’t originally post here about EPIC because I wanted to be seen as promoting the views of EPIC.

On one view EPIC makes you (if you’re in the news and information business) reach for valium, gin/vodka/scotch and turn out the lights. Another view makes you aware of one group[‘s view of what might be.

You can get EPIC 2015 here or here. This second site for less tech savvy people – the content is the same.

I like EPIC 2015. It’s creative thinking which opens one’s mind to other possibilities. Of course it could go further. It set me thinking about my businesses by presenting scenarios I had not considered.

If you’re in the new and information business, shut your door, turn off your phone, hide sharp objects and watch EPIC 2015.

For a less optimistic view of the world you could watch EPIC 2014. This was made by the same team last year and cause a stir when released.

Good story by the US PBS Online NewsHour people about changes in delivery of news and information content. At the website you can read the transcript, listen to the audio, watch the video and watch extended interviews. The story itself demonstrates how distribution of news and information is changing.

There is an excellent example of how the Wilmington News Journal is embracing the opportunity technology affords it and moving beyond print in getting news, information and its brand out to consumers.

This is an excellent story by the NewsHour team – one everyone involved in the news and information supply chain ought to read/watch/listen to.

The Australian newspaper supply chain needs to better educate itself about these developments and plan accordingly. While many say that publishers embracing digital will not dramatically impact the printed product, others disagree. Newsagents and others in the supply chain need to develop a strategy so they are playing in this new field as well.

Two days after their editorial writer had an unexpected crack at Australia’s 4,600 independent small business newsagents, the Fairfax’s new chief operating officer, Brian Evans is quoted in an article, If the paper’s too big, sell it in parts, in today’s Fairfax published Sydney Morning Herald.

Talking about opportunities for specialisation in retail of Fairfax newspapers, Evans comments about a role newsagents can play:

“That’s really where the relationship with the newsagent comes into play. If we’re going to supply different products to different people, it’s going to come through the newsagent distribution system.”

Further on he comments:

“We need to have a more dynamic relationship with newsagents,” he said. “That relationship has to be a lot more modern in the way it thinks about things.”

The story about Evans, Fairfax plans for the future and newsagents will take the sting out of the editorial of two days ago. It is a good move and should be welcomed by newsagents. However, the need for the newsagent channel to evolve remains just as it does for publishers to evolve.

Newsagents have excellent foot traffic. Much of this has been built through linear relationships with suppliers. A cohesive marketing and management plan could see incremental sales achieved in all major categories. Rather than newsagents working with a Fairfax rep in isolation, they should be working with Fairfax, News, lotteries and the card suppliers to present a complete retail story so that maximum sales are achieved every visit. This presents a better opportunity than add on sales at McDonalds.

Newsagents not a protected species.

This is the headline from an editorial yesterday’s Australian Financial Review – the national business daily of record. Ignoring the inaccuracies in the editorial, it is disappointing to see a newspaper publisher gunning for a retail and distribution channel they created.

The editorial was in response to reports of concerns by newsagents about the possibility of newspapers going into McDonalds. Of course newspapers are chasing incremental sales. Based on past experience, putting newspapers in new locations won’t achieve incremental sales.

Working with the newsagent channel on leveraging sales out of existing foot traffic might be more successful at generating incremental sales. It’s working in my shop – 10% newspaper sales growth year on year – achieved by understanding the shopping basket and finding cross promotion opportunities.

Newsagents are a child of the publishers. They at our publishers who created the channel are engaging with others without more completely engaging with us is disappointing.

The range of magazines in my shop are my point of difference in my shopping centre. The supermarkets and variety stores carry the top 100 or so titles. I have 1,600+ titles (and growing).

In June 2004 sales were okay. Under 10% growth though. With business costs rising and cover prices reasonably static the only option we have to cover higher costs was to increase sales.

Having watched consumers embrace coffee shop loyalty cards we decided to use a similar campaign in our newsagency.

We have this card to each customer who buys a magazine. That’s our only promotion. No advertising. No posters. No flyers in letterboxes. Just word of mouth across our counter.

The result – 25% year on year growth in magazines and excellent flow on sales in other categories across the business.

It’s this kind of promotion which independent retailers can engage in to compete against the supermarkets and others.

We planned to rest the campaign in May but with growth still strong we are now expecting to give it another three months.

In an effort to help newsagents better understand their businesses and uncover opportunities for growth, I am analysed sales data from 53 newsagencies. 25% are regional/rural and the rest city/suburban. 20% were in centres, 70% major high street locations and 10% small rural.

Sales data from January 1, 2005 through March 31, 2005 is being analysed for each newsagency.

The challenge with any analysis of data from newsagencies is lack of consistency in how technology is used to track sales and lack of consistency in managing data captured.

This post and others to follow in the series are an incomplete analysis of the data from the 53 newsagencies.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Average items per sale

City/suburban – 1.55

Regional/rural – 1.85

Average sale value

City/suburban – $5.50

Regional/rural – $8.60

% of GP contributed by TOP 10 selling items

City/suburban – 65%

Regional/rural – 46%

The big surprise is the number of sales including product from only one category – this, to me, indicates the efficiency of the business. Too many of these single item or single category sales and the cost of each sale is higher than in a situation where a customer buys from 2 or 3 categories. These are the TOP 8 categories based on unit sales. That the sold alone percentages are so high is also concerning given that none of these categories is exclusive to newsagents.

CATEGORY LEVEL ANALYSIS

Percentage of sales in each of the TOP 8 categories where products from the category were sold alone:

City/suburban

Newspapers – 66%.

Magazines – 48%.

Partworks – 33%

Lotteries – 65%.

Cigarettes – 60%.

Cards – 49%.

Stationery – 50%.

Photocopying – 75%.

Transportation – 58%.

Rural/regional

Newspapers – 35%.

Magazines – 34%.

Partworks – 22%

Lotteries – 45%.

Cards – 32%.

Cigarettes – 38%.

Stationery – 30%.

Photocopying – 60%.

Transportation – 40%.

This difference between city and rural is to be expected given the nature of shopping visits in both areas and also a lower of regulation by suppliers.

Single item sales are most concerning because of the inefficiency associated with them and the measure they provide for success at up selling. While we have no data to back the claim, our feeling is that they reflect the convenience nature of newsagency shopping.

One reason for newspaper and lottery products being sold alone is the requirements by their suppliers that they are isolated from other product. In Victoria, for example, newsagents are not allowed to promote non Tattersalls product at their Tattersalls counter. These rules lead to a segmentation of newsagencies which discourages consumers from shopping the shop. Greater co-operation between suppliers of products to newsagents would allow the development of a more cohesive retail story and therefore facilitate an increase in cross category sales.

The information in this post barely scratches the surface of the results of this shopping basket analysis project. What started as a project to improve the efficiency of my own newsagency has grown into a deeper study comparing the efficiencies of 53 newsagencies.

I started this analysis of my newsagency mid 2004. The learnings from that study led (and continue to lead) to significant in store changes. The results of the changes are reflected in our latest shopping basket analysis. Sold alone percentages are down for the top 5 categories. Quite significantly in the top 3. The result is significant sales growth and that’s reflected in our bottom line.

Randall Stross writes about how Craigslist is giving local newspapers and eBay a run for their money. Followers of Craigslist have known this for years. A good piece from the New York Times even if a little late.

According to a story on page 3 today’s Australian Financial Review, the global McDonald’s chain is pushing ahead with the sale of newspapers across its network of stores. This would be devastating for Australia’s 4,600 independently owned newsagents and their employees on several fronts:

It dilutes the value of newsagencies in the minds of consumers as the retail point of news and information. It also confuses consumers.

It reduces traffic to newsagencies – the channel created by the publishers in the 1800s to sell and support their product. Newspapers are the key generator of traffic for newsagencies – they are the top selling items in most.

It helps a global company take business from independently owned small businesses.

It harms the fine balance that is a newsagency. A typical newsagency sells newspapers, magazines, lottery products, greeting cards and stationery. Margins are slim. It is the high volume of foot traffic for low margin purchases which keep newsagencies going. Hence the anticipated high impact of the McDonalds push.

The big fat McDonalds ought to stick to peddling its food and leave the sale of news and information product to the specialists.

Every small business owner and every person working in a small business ought to boycott McDonalds. We should be supporting other independent small businesses.

Any business supporting the McDonalds push is demonstrating its preference for global companies over locally owned independents.

Newsagents need to rally on this issue and campaign aggressively to their local media outlets.

Further to my earlier post, I’ve just analysed sales data from another 53 newsagencies covering January 2005 through March 2005. In city/suburban newsagencies 66% of newspapers are sold alone. In rural/regional newsagencies 35% of newspapers are sold alone. In all newsagencies newspapers are the highest selling product category – they are the highest traffic generator.

This success for newspaper sales in newsagencies is no surprise. Our channel was created by the publishers in the 1800s to serve their distribution needs. For over 100 years we have been the outlet to purchase newspapers and magazines from. It’s why there are 4,600 newsagencies across the country – in every town and every suburban high street situation.

Today, though, newsagencies are one of several channel in the publisher distribution strategy. Newspapers are no longer specialist product. They’re a convenience product.

Prior to deregulation in the late 1990s the Melbourne Herald Sun, Australia’s top selling newspaper, sold for $1.00. Newsagents had the retail pretty much sewn up. They did a good job too. Now, with sales not that different to prior to deregulation, you can buy newspapers in petrol outlets, convenience stores, supermarkets, variety stores and even coffee shops. So, newsagents have had significant sales taken from their businesses. Such is the product of deregulation. However, the back end of the operation has not deregulated. Newsagents have been left with deregulation type accounting and supply processes which bog their businesses down in inefficiencies which, I suspect, their retail competitors are not faced with. Ask a newsagent about the in store display rules they have to live with and compare these to newsagent competitors. You’ll soon see an unfair playing field.

The Herald Sun is still $1.00 today. Seven years on. In my store I make as much today as seven years ago yet now pay 35% more rent, 35% more wages, 40% more in operational costs. News Corp. controls my GP on my highest selling item and continues to look for new retail channels to take business from me. Something doesn’t make sense about this situation.

So, newsagents have lost sales to competitors as result of deregulation. They have also absorbed significant labour, lease and operation cost increases. Yet the cover price, which newsagents have no control over, has remained static. This is an appalling situation for newsagents. Unfair at best and economic suicide at worst.

Newsagent competitors are not as concerned since they are getting add on sales they (most at least) did not get previously.

Every new outlet carrying newspapers further erodes traffic to newsagencies and this is a huge risk for this challenged small business channel. Newsagents need strategies which build traffic in the face of further loss of newspaper traffic. They also need publisher agreement for cross promotion of other product with newspaper sales. At present publishers don’t want newsagents to promote other parts of their business to newspaper customers.

Newspaper publishers need to review their cover price to ensure that it reflects the value of the product to the consumer. They also need to agree to a commission for the retailer which reflects the real costs of offering the product in store. Finally, they need to support and encourage cross promotion of other products and services to newspaper customers.

In an ideal world I would buy my newspaper product for 50% less than it costs me today, I’d buy on ‘firm sale’ (i.e. no returns of unsold product) and I would have complete control as to how I display and promote newspaper product in store. I reckon the results would be a nice kick in sales.

This channel the publishers created is being slowly starved and drowned at the same time.

The Washington City Paper this week introduced hawkers to offer their freebie to commuters in an effort to boost flagging circulation according to the Washington Post. I find this story interesting because I cannot get free papers for my retail newsagency. I’m happy to attract any and all traffic, even if they come to collect a free paper. You’re either part of the news and information supply chain or not in my view.

A quote from the Washington Post story:

A few restaurants and grocers stopped carrying the paper, she said, after customers complained that readers left the newspapers on tables or threw it on the streets. Also, more chain retailers, with policies prohibiting distribution of local newspapers, are moving in, she said.

Here’s a perfect example of the citizen journalism movement at work and kicking goals. WeatherBug, (a good commercial weather reporting service) has announced the formation of a nationwide network of “weather reporters” who will collect, report and share weather information from their own WeatherBug Backyard Tracking Stations. Read the full press release here. Here’s a key quote from the press release:

Citizen weather enthusiasts enhancing the commercial offering…a good marriage.

Radio is embracing new technology faster than newspaper and magazine publishers.

Podcasting, barely a year old, has already been boldly embraced by radio companies and advertisers. In no time at all they have understood and seized the opportunity and created commercial offerings which extend existing business models. Not only stations, people brands Dr Laura Schlessigner and Rush Limbaugh are in the podcast world push their views to the mobile and tech savvy.

Newspaper and magazine publishers, on the other hand, continue to struggle with the intersection of the growing citizen journalism movement (blogging, podcasting etc), we media (the daily me as opposed to the daily newspaper), mobile technology and more accessible and faster broadband. Some are dabbling, few are truly embracing the opportunity. Further, the news and information supply chain seems to be at a loss as to how to respond or even wondering if they need to respond.

Radio stations across the globe are showing how a traditional media company can embrace technology to enhance their brand and do to so in partnership with advertisers.

The differences between radio and print are that radio is not as old as print, it does not have the supply chain to deal with, it does not have the capital infrastructure in traditional product and it’s already used to mobile access.

The article, PODCASTING RAPIDLY EMERGING AS RADIO BUSINESS EXTENSION, the latest issue of Advertising Age demonstrates how advertisers and radio stations are embracing the opportunity and how legitimate podcasting has become in such a short time.

Podcasting is takes all media players into undefined space. It’s opened a new marketplace and blurred the lines between media players. It is another reason why the media ownership laws in several countries need urgent overhaul. Podcasting also increases competition between, say, newspapers and radio. Whereas in the old world their lines of delivery were more clearly defined, today the story is the thing.

Newspaper and magazine publishers and their supply chain partners need play catch up and aggressively play in the mobile space – if only to help see the road ahead for their businesses.

Rex Hammock has published a brilliant series of posts on podcasting. In post #3 Rex lists the kinds of podcasts he’d pay podcasters for. It’s an interesting list. Here are some items from Rex’s list:

1. City tours (really, any kind of tours, including museums, historic battlefields, national parks, etc.)

2. Mash-up music-news programming: I’d pay for a version of a 30 minute program of business news each morning that had jock-jam-type music in the background playing at my jog pace.

3. Seminar sessions: I doubt I’m going to attend your $1,200 conference. But if it sounds compelling enough, I might pay you $100 to download each session a few minutes after it is finished.

4. MP3 books — self-publishing model: iTunes could, if they want to extend the long tail out long enough, become the Amazon.com of audio books — Amazon.com is trying to do that itself, however.

5. Motivational, self-help, weight-loss, exercise, how-to audio: This content is all over the place already…even on iTunes.

Rex’s point is well made – while podcasting, barely a year old, has set radio and publishing alight with start ups and existing players developing business models, there are many outside the traditional news and information fields who can create content to be podcast.

Businesses like newsagents can be an access point for downloading podcasts and paying the few cents for story, music and other content. We do this today in selling newspapers and magazines. we have the consumer connect. So, our place in this supply chain is logical. Plus many of us have the technology in our stores for such distribution.

Taking Rex’s thoughts and with the right economic model, accessing podcasts through newsagencies and under a strong national brand could bring a whole new range of consumers our way. I’d been thinking along the lines of newsagents offering music and video download but podcasts of all manner of things really opens the world.

As I’ve predicted before, podcasting will facilitate greater disaggregation – disconnecting stories from aggregators such as newspapers, magazines, television shows and radio shows. Podcasting will make the story the thing. People will pay fractional amounts for the story. And the new wave of devices coming out later this year will push the movement from audio to video.

Jeff Jarvis at BuzzMachine provides some interesting background to EPIC 2014 the brilliant flash movie sepculating on the future of news. In his post, Jeff tells us that EPIC 2014 was inspired by an argument over this speech from January 2004 by Martin Nisenholtz Chief Executive Officer, New York Times Digital. I had not read Pong of Electronic Publishing (read the speech to understand the title) until today and am glad to be able to read it now, sixteen months after it was delivered. History is showing that Nisenholtz was on the mark in many areas and off the mark in others. The most significant passage from the speech in my view is:

Users will be able to associate content from a wide variety of sources, including filtered access to other users, through a common interface. Online communities will be available to discuss any “article” at any time of the night or day. A user lands on the article and discussions about that article are continuous. News reports become a focal point for social networking. Again, we see this bubbling-up in Web logs today.

In this vision, two very important boundaries which all of us have grown up with, know and understand change. The first is authority. In a newspaper or in a television news broadcast, the journalistic experience is one-way and bounded. In this new experience, sources range and are scored.

A professionally crafted restaurant review will –in my opinion – bring the same kind of authority to the user in the digital world as it does today. But this review will be augmented by a range of opinions from others; ranging from other professionals to bloggers to audience. We can already glimpse these scoring mechanisms – and this is just one example – in our rate and review area in our Movies section. As better reputation and recommendation management systems emerge, readers will “empower” new kinds of creators who may emerge from outside of traditional institutions.

As anyone reading this blog might expect, I’ll consider material such as this from Nisenholtz in the context of the existing news and information supply chain since this is where I play the most. In Australia there are 4,600 of us, businesses created in the 1800s by publishers to serve their needs. We’re evolved tremendously since then, of course, yet some of our mind sets remain – such as expecting others to create our future. The world described by Nisenholtz in his speech is becoming a reality and while newspapers and magazines will not die, the mass market model of the past will change. Who knows if EPIC 2014 will become a reality. Some could be excused for thinking it will given the moves by Google in recent years.

The supply chain is in play yet many in the supply chain don’t know that. It’s business as usual for them and that’s bad for business.

My view is that businesses which rely on newspapers and magazines for 50% of their traffic need to reinvent urgently, not away from news and information but allied to. They (we) need to connect locally. The need to be part of the mobile citizen driven new media. They need to be leading the change rather than chasing behind and grabbing at crumbs.

This is one reason we’re playing with a citizen journalism model and in some other areas. We’re making plenty of mistakes and enjoying picking ourselves up for another go.

The key focus for the traditional news and information channel is to understand that we’re the final point in the supply chain. We’re content retailers. What else we do to be relevant needs to fit with this.

The Chicago Sun-Times is the first major US newspaper to stop publishing daily share price listings as announced in this story. Their comprehensive listing has been replaced with a two page summary.

While the Sun-Times story was upbeat and full of spin, the Chicago Tribune reported the story as an imporant news item – heralding a new era:

The Sun-Times appears to be the nation’s first large-circulation daily paper to do away with the tables, though many publications have been trimming them for more than a decade.

Sun-Times business editor Dan Miller did not return a call seeking comment on the move, announced in the newspaper’s Tuesday’s editions.

“It’s a recognition that for a great majority of readers it’s redundant,” said Sun-Times Publisher John Cruickshank. “It’s not an easy way to present the stock. It’s a whole lot easier to go on the Web.”

And further on is this telling par:

Since the dawn of the Internet, newspapers have wrestled with the question of which content should appear in the printed publication and which should be duplicated or appear exclusively online.

This might be a tipping point for newspapers. Publishers are a proud bunch and would not want to be first out of the gate with a change like this. Now that the gate is open it will be interesting to see who follows. The decision demonstrates the power of mobile and online access to time sensitive information. Also, it frees the newspaper to do what the medium does best. It will be crucial that they embrace that opportunity to ensure relevance.

The US Sports Illustrated magazine has gone live with professionally produced video content to support stories in the magazines. At SI.com you can access stories behind the stories in the magazine.

Online Media Daily quotes Jeff Price, vice president and chief of marketing at SI.com. “The idea is to play both mediums to their strengths,” said Price. “We’re looking forward to great online/print opportunities for the editions coming up that will be devoted to college and pro football.”

The Sports Illustrated strategy has three elements from what I can see: to support a high subscription price; to engage readers (viewers) with their brand for longer; and to position the brand for disaggregating stories from the magazine.

While SI video content is currently available to everyone, I’d expect it soon to be available only to subscribers. I’d also expect audio and video content to be available on a story by story basis. This is how the younger demographic prefers to purchase content and smart publishers chasing the younger demographic will give them what they want.

The video stories at SI.com are professionally produced and carry advertising.

It’s a fine line they are playing since newsstand and subscription sales are important. New Media sales will be equally important. Hence the need to focus on their brand in multiple mediums at once and engage in precision balancing – ensuring that growth in one medium does not pull does sales in another medium which that medium is key to revenue.

Sports Illustrated is not a big title in Australia and we could be forgiven for brushing their new initiatives off. That would be ignorant. The lead by SI and some others needs to be understood, especially by the traditional news and information supply chain. There are new supply chain alternatives which we need to be playing in and or responding to.

Sports Illustrated are demonstrating that the world has changed.

Given the research indicating that the 18-34 demographic are moving away from traditional forms of news and information retail businesses like mine which rely on news and information product (newspapers and magazines) for 50% of our customer traffic need to change to be more attractive to the younger audience while not alienating the older audience. Here’s what we are doing:

Promoting recharge. The 18 – 34 demographic is the recharge age range. We’re creating a loyalty promotion around multiple recharges. Whether they recharge phones, online access or debit cards. We’re happy to reward their traffic to our shop.

Make the shop friendly for 18 – 34. Newsagencies are considered to be places for older people. During our push for youth we’re making the front third of our shop youth friendly. We figure if we show product like music, skater, surf, fashion and teen magazines it will help create the connect.

Sound. We’re being careful about the music we play.

Product placement. We’re being careful to place 18 – 34 product away from content of interest to older customers where possible.

Funkier product. We’re breaking away from the traditional newsagency product mix. For example, in our greeting card department we’re carrying non traditional cards and as a result are seeing double digit growth.

Asking what they want. We’re talking to our customers to find out what they want.

Shopping basket analysis. We’re trying to understand what sells with what and how this can be considered in the context of demographic.

Free internet access. We’re trialing making Net access free in 15 minute chunks. Our hope is that this will show us as more Net friendly and therefore make us more interesting to the age range we’re pursuing.

Traditionally, our centre changes. Early in the week most visitors are in the 50+ age range. Friday through Sunday it is younger people including young families.

Like most of Australia’s 4,600 newsagencies we have catered for tradition. Sticking with what newsagencies have been for over 100 years. While our tradition is to be celebrated, it will not provide a viable future for us. We know the world has changed and it’s time for us to change with it. The list above is a small step on the road to change many newsagents will have to take.

Matthew Flamm reports at Crain’s New York Business that on June 9 the New York Times will will begin sending out street hawkers every Thursday afternoon to hand out copies of MarketPlace, a full-color, tabloid-sized classified advertising guide. MarketPlace will also include articles reprinted from the New York Times. Initial distribution is expected to be 150,000.

Newspapers are pursuing a range of avenues to attract younger readers and others who are ignoring the traditional newsstand purchase. Most strategies cut out the existing supply chain.

Technology has broken the corporate news monopoly. Digital cameras, camera phones, blogs, and RSS put the tools of the news trade into the hands of the public, and now real news comes from real people everywhere. Now you can demand coverage of the stories you care about—all you need is nowPublic.

And with that, NowPublic introduces itself to the world. NowPublic is a grassroots world news coverage service where anyone can have a voice. You can also nominate news items for extra coverage.

Peter Shankman predicts the “death” of a major US newspaper in 2007 and that a “digital-only” version will replace it in his blog – PR. Differently. Shankman runs a PR firm, The Geek Factory. Whether he is right or not is immaterial. That the prediction is our there and being quoted by others puts the prospect up for discussion and that, of itself, can give momentum to what started as a predition.