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The future of newspapers

Eric Beecher, publisher of Crikey, and former editor of the Sydney Morning Herald, makes sense in his call for government investment in quality journalism. Beecher made his comments in the wake of the news earlier this week that Fairfax was to cut more than 500 positions.

While many newsagents may not care about the quality of newspapers, I see this as being an important issue for our channel. For more than 100 years we have been the specialists. Our specialisation has been developed around newspapers.  Newspapers have been key to driving traffic to our doors. If newspapers soften and become even more about lifestyle than news, publishers are less likely to rely on specialist retailers to support the category.

One way we can reinforce our commitment to newspapers, beyond the marketing tips I published here a week back, is to embrace a broader specialist newspaper offer. By extending our range of foreign language newspapers we can tap into a growth segment of the newspaper category. In my recent sales benchmark study, foreign newspaper delivered double digit growth in many newsagencies – counter to the trend for capital city dailies.  At our Forest Hill store they account for between 8% and 10% of total newspaper sales.

Another specialisation opportunity is around demographic specific newspapers.  For example at our Forest Hill store we are proud supporters of the Melbourne Observer newspaper. This weekly generates sales of between 50 and 100 copies. Customers are as loyal as foreign language newspaper customers.

In these two examples, while we are not generating the volume of the capital city daily, we are serving a loyal constituency and thereby diluting the impact of any fall in sales of the dailies.

There are many conflicting views among commentators about the future of newspapers. A common view is that being local is key to the future. I see foreign language newspapers and titles like the Melbourne Observer fitting the local model. It is not difficult or expensive for newsagents to chase opportunities like these.

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Media disruption

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  1. shashindra

    News paper future is not safe after introduction of the electronic media inthis field.

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  2. Derek

    Read this article on Twenty amazing facts about the internet

    http://trevorcook.typepad.com/weblog/2008/05/twenty-amazing.html

    “Newspapers’ online audiences are rising at twice the rate of the general internet audience. Newspaper Web sites attracted more than 66.4 million unique visitors on average (40.7 percent of all Internet users) in the first quarter of 2008, a record number that represents a 12.3 percent increase over the same period a year ago, according to a custom analysis provided by Nielsen Online for the Newspaper Association of America.”

    Although this talks about USA I was suprised at the statistics. I just struggle with all this talking up the online presence of media.

    I feel that there needs to be a balance from someone with the expertise that gives an insight into the hardcopy of newspapers regarding its long term future. I know there will be one, if the court public opinionis respected.

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  3. Jarryd Moore

    Derek,

    I for one won’t be betting on a long term future for newspapers. A few decades (maybe less) and I envisage the major daily print newspaper being a thing of the past. While there may be a small demand for the printed product, the viability of publishing it requires a reasonably large number. Publishers will move completly online before they reach this point to protect their ROI.

    The balance is already there – all the data points towards the demise of print and the move towards online media. You can’t put a diferent spin on the data when the trends it shows are so prominent.

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  4. Derek

    Jarryd,

    This is a very difficult subject as we know its coming but when, I was hoping for 20 years however with the pace of new technology and the growth of accessing up to date news online I actually agree with you it probably it will be considerably less.

    When they perfect the portable gizmo and roll out it out, it will like you said leaves a certain amount of population out of the loop like you said and that concerns me.

    I guess or I should say I would like to here what the people from Fairfax & News etc have to say about this and the future as they see it in 20 years. I am sure they would want to get right out of print. But it is all speculation until we get some more information from the source.

    Their are some prominent Journalists and Blogs giving some excellent information on where we are heading but I would like to see something official.

    Jarryd, Using an analogy Dairy Farmers for example biggest seller is White full cream but they also cater for people who dont like full cream and like Skim milk.

    A very interesting topic.

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  5. Jarryd Moore

    Derek,

    Probably the two biggest indicators from Fairfax and News that they are moving out of print in the future is the job cuts made by Farifax earlier this year and their increased revenue from online media (which accompanies a decrease in print). Rupert Murdoch has publically noted a move online more than a few times and has even hinted at taking publications purely online in the not too distant future.

    I understand the Dairy Famers analogy – but the break even point for such products is much lower than that of large publications. Major dailies need very large circulation quantities to meet the publishers ROI requirements.

    On the gizmo, new phones being released are proving extremely popular to access online media (Mark has a post on the iPhone). I use my HTC Touch Diamond to access online media, email, facebook, weather forecasts, etc – the ease of use is supprising for such a compact device.

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  6. Derek

    Hi Jarryd

    Thankyou for the information and it is a interesting subject which intrigues me.

    For the newsagent channel I would hope the Publishers open dialogue to understand where the Newsagency channel fits into their plans.

    I am assuming that their will be not a dedicated Gizmo (I was thinking News or Fairfax would want their own) but one such as yours will suffice to access the “newspaper of the day”

    Again a good and interesting topic and I am sure we will be hearing more as more information is released or “leaked”.

    Cheers Derek

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  7. Michael

    I have another topic which may have an effect on all of this and that’s advertising. Half of a paper’s content is that and we all know a lot of people that read them, what happens with the reduced amount on these gizmos? I wouldn’t something that shows me ads everytime I finish an article.

    It’s getting interesting the more opinions are put forward here, we should start talking on how “we” can be a part of it, ie docking stations?, get your gizmo charged and updated with today’s news for $1.20?

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  8. Graeme

    Michael,
    A nice thought on the recharge but, I reckon these subscriptions deals that we see now could be the fore runner of similar deals for recharge of the daily news. It will be an update at a cost before they leave home, by passing us altogether.

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  9. Jarryd Moore

    Graeme, Michael,

    I am willing to stake my life on saying that major online media will be free. The majority of online media is alread free. The income comes from online advertising, be it banners, popups, etc. Advertising online is structured differently to print.

    Docking stations defeat the purpose/attraction of online media. It is not a replica of print media that can be read on a screen. It is designed to be accessed on-demand, anytime, anywhere.

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  10. Derek

    The owner of this blog Mark has shared many times since I have been visiting that the Newsagency Channel should be looking to the future, change is here today and a newspaper alternative coming maybe a decade or 2 away, The information Mark and others have foresight / insight into comes free and I am only beginning to understand what they have been trying to say these last 3 years.

    We must diversify somewhat, introduce new lines, unite and the list goes on. If Jarryd is right and Newsagents are bypassed, what will continue to drive customers to your shop?

    Ideas such as Grames’s and Michaels are good and we all should be pulling together like this before it is to late for the many who are in denial. I still would like some dialogue from major publishes to see where we fit in. I do not think it is too early for the Federations who represent members to begin asking questions.

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  11. Michael

    I think at the end of the day it won’t be pulishers or us that decide what happens, it will be the consumer.

    I think the way mobile phones have developed with being able to access the internet and therefore get access to the Herald-Sun etc, it is already here!

    We don’t need to wait for a gizmo to unsettle us, the change has already began. I think we’ll have to wait a generation for it to kick in and show it’s effects on our channel.

    I believe print will be around for quite a while to come, I don’t even own a mobile phone so I’m stuck buying a paper or going without.

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  12. Mark

    Derek,

    There are many opportunities for newsagents. They begin and end with us acting as if the future of our businesses is up to us. This is a huge change for many newsagents. But it is a tremendous and exciting opportunity.

    Mark

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  13. Derek

    Mark

    Exactly, opportunities are abundant and change should have started, planning should be have started.

    Whether Newspapers will totally dissappear or not cannot really be answered until more information is availiable, if anything it has to be a gradual changeover.

    I agree with what Michael said, it will depend on what customers want to some degree, I also only just started regularly using a mobile, so you can see some people are slow, resistant or scared of Gizmo’s. But I know Gizmo’s are the future as I am encouraging my 10 year old son to be gizmo literate in all things as he will need to be to be a part of the future.

    I may post a link in a recent post you have created in case people want to see.

    On a another note, Government owned post offices future in my opinion is shaky, I am not sure how long the government will prop up this part of this business but I can actually see them taken over in some form by the Newsagency channel. Food for thought!

    Derek

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  14. Mark

    Derek,

    Australia is almost alone in the government ownership of a retail channel like Australia Post. Most other countries have post offices which are, well, post offices or they do not own the network.

    Mark

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  15. Michael

    Derek, I’m tech savvy enough to use a phone I just don’t want one, after always forgetting to take it or sqaushing them under cars, loosing them in paddocks, I over them for the time being!

    I agree with you on Australia Post – They’ll get more shaky if they’re doing the Aldi thing, such as selling BBQ’s!!! What next? Do I walk in and ask for a book of stamps and a MIG welder??? This is the begin of their slide down.

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  16. Derek

    Michael, dont worry they are just about to release a watch phone.

    Did you guys hear this morning that Australia post reported a very large profit, interesting timing. What is really interesting is what they did not say, I have sourced the breakdown of the profit and posted it here.

    i just wonder how many other readers are of the view that these Aust Post Government owned post offices would be running out of gas. We all know how each of our business’s are doing and what it costs to run, fit out and whats left at the end of the day.

    Quick summary of Aust Post 2007/2008 sourced from http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/australia-post-delivers-record-profit/2007/10/17/1192300821826.html?s_cid=rss_business

    Interesting points:-

    a) Australia Post returned a $296.9 million dividend to its sole shareholder, the federal government, along with another $474.9 million in government taxes and charges.

    b)The parcels division delivered a $255.9 million before tax profit – up 16 per cent on the previous year.

    c)Australia Post’s letters division reported an 8.4 per cent slide in its before-tax profit to $160.0 million

    d)The internet also proved a challenge to Australia Post’s retail network which reported flat before-tax profit of $86.6 million.

    Point d says it all, good to read the whole page as predicted on many posts a big decline on bill payment have affected its retail division. If you divided this 86 million by the amount of retail Government owned post offices about 860 the average profit for the year per shop is approximately $99K before tax/s, What is wrong here, so what is it’s real agenda? providing a service to the public? surely not.

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  17. Michael

    Interesting results when you divide it up per outlet. I don’t like hearing about profits when they’ve increased the price of stamps, although I’m happy for it to be spent on roads, hospitals etc.

    I don’t wear a watch either! I’m waiting on the implant gizmo that does everything.

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