I understand the risk of early predictions and the danger of talking something down but here are my predictions for Christmas 2005 in newsagencies in three core categories and based on early sales data from a small but active selection of newsagencies:
Card sales – up 10% to 15% on last year Diaries – up 10+% on last year Calendars – down 25% on last year
The concern is calendars. This category used to be truly valuable for the newsagency channel and now it is patchy at best. While there are some stores where there will be sales growth, for most they will be flat at best or, as I predict, down 15%. With slim margins, high real-estate and labour costs and no real point of difference newsagents will need to consider if this category is appropriate moving forward.
There is no single thing hurting newsagents but when you combine calendar discounting, slashing of phone recharge commissions, newspapers being sold everywhere and lotteries moving more online the challenges of traffic attraction for the channel become clearer.